David McCullough Mornings on HorsebackMay 4, 2021Committee hearingMay 4, 2021
Read the following fictitious speech by Dale Gribble. Answer the questions that follow. Speech Iam a new homeowner and let me tell you- it is always work! I am a professor of mathematics and statistics andthat is how I filter everything. I had a hypothesis about German cockroaches that recently infested my Floridahouse. I have a hypothesis that I tested. I wondered if every cockroach infesting my house was a Germancockroach, or another type of cockroach. I concluded that approximately 70% of the cockroaches that infestedmy house were German cockroaches. How did I arrive at that conclusion? I consulted the Florida Departmentof Agriculture and learned that 50% of the cockroaches in Florida are German cockroaches and 70% of thecockroaches found in Pasco County, Florida, (where I live) are German cockroaches as well. I then generalizedthat nearly all of the cockroaches in Pasco County, Florida, are German Cockroaches. I also counted 10cockroaches of the tens of thousands infesting my house, and I noted that 7 of the 10 cockroaches wereGerman cockroaches. My cockroach infestation is analogous to the Great Rattle Snake Infestation of 2010.Eastern Diamondback Rattle Snakes infested my subdivision that year. There were 10,000 snakes located andkilled- and 9,990 of them were Eastern Diamondback Rattle Snakes. Both infestations were similar and nearlyevery one of the invaders was of one particular type.Questions:
Does Dale provide an informal or formal inductive argument? Why?
Does the sample size that Dale discusses logically lead to his conclusions? Why or why not?
Are the generalizations that Dale makes accurate based upon the sample size and confidence level? Why orwhy not?
Are the analogous arguments that Dale makes accurate based upon the sample size and confidence level?Why or why not?
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